Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco)
Table 4
Results of the 3 change point detection methods applied to monthly mean temperature data, January–June, between 1980 and 2020 in the Moulouya watershed.
January
February
March
April
May
June
P value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
value
Significance
Date
Pettitt’s test
S1
0.023
1992
0.625
N
—
0.161
N
—
≤0.01
1996
≤0.01
1998
≤0.001
1997
S2
0.156
N
—
0.878
N
—
0.646
N
—
0.013
2007
0.068
N
—
≤0.001
1998
S3
≤0.01
1992
0.207
N
—
0.031
1995
≤0.01
1995
≤0.001
1998
≤0.01
1996
S4
0.048
1992
0.036
2004
0.305
N
—
0.021
1996
≤0.001
1998
≤0.001
1997
S5
0.468
N
—
0.798
N
—
0.550
N
—
≤0.01
2007
≤0.001
2004
≤0.001
1999
S6
0.448
N
—
0.303
N
—
0.287
N
—
≤0.01
2009
≤0.01
1993
≤0.01
1992
S7
0.087
N
—
0.109
N
2006
0.021
1999
≤0.01
1997
0.161
N
—
0.378
N
—
S8
0.010
1994
0.390
N
1993
0.176
N
—
0.014
2004
≤0.01
2004
≤0.01
1998
S9
0.013
1992
0.089
N
1998
0.234
N
—
≤0.01
1996
≤0.001
1998
≤0.001
1997
Buishand’s range test
S1
0.114
N
—
0.439
N
—
0.130
N
—
0.013
1996
≤0.001
1998
≤0.001
1997
S2
0.305
N
—
0.876
N
—
0.725
N
—
≤0.01
2007
0.030
2004
≤0.001
1999
S3
0.015
1992
0.175
N
—
0.020
1995
≤0.01
1995
≤0.001
1998
≤0.01
1996
S4
0.220
N
—
0.020
2004
0.279
N
—
0.065
N
—
≤0.001
1998
≤0.001
1997
S5
0.268
N
—
0.682
N
—
0.448
N
—
≤0.001
2007
≤0.001
2004
≤0.001
1999
S6
0.364
N
—
0.318
N
—
0.349
N
—
≤0.01
2009
0.015
1994
≤0.01
1992
S7
0.044
2009
0.183
N
—
0.028
1999
≤0.01
1997
0.167
N
—
0.192
N
—
S8
0.147
N
—
0.396
N
—
0.200
N
—
0.01
2004
≤0.01
2004
0.011
1998
S9
0.142
N
—
0.012
1998
0.218
N
—
≤0.01
1996
≤0.001
2004
≤0.001
1997
von Neumann ratio test
S1
≤0.001
0.020
0.139
N
0.26
N
0.026
≤0.01
S2
≤0.01
0.566
N
0.135
N
0.256
N
0.271
N
0.075
N
S3
≤0.001
≤0.01
≤0.01
≤0.01
≤0.001
0.195
N
S4
≤0.001
≤0.01
≤0.01
0.278
N
≤0.01
≤0.01
S5
≤0.01
0.738
N
0.223
N
≤0.01
≤0.01
≤0.001
S6
≤0.01
0.098
N
0.450
N
0.026
0.074
N
0.131
N
S7
≤0.01
0.518
N
0.607
N
0.03
0.604
N
0.015
S8
≤0.001
0.494
N
0.151
N
0.07
N
≤0.01
≤0.01
S9
≤0.001
≤0.001
0.164
N
0.02
≤0.001
0.011
N, no significant change point. Significant point of change at 0.1 level. Significant point of change at 0.05 level. Significant change point at 0.01 threshold.