The Combination Forecasting of Electricity Price Based on Price Spikes Processing: A Case Study in South Australia

Table 4

CPSO weight-determined combination models forecasting results.

Time	Actual price value ($/MWh)	A-B (C)		B-K (C)		A-K (C)		A-B-K (C)
		Forecasting value ($/MWh)	MAPE (%)	Forecasting value ($/MWh)	MAPE (%)	Forecasting value ($/MWh)	MAPE (%)	Forecasting value ($/MWh)	MAPE (%)
00:30	41.91	19.75	52.88	23.41	44.15	23.69	43.46	23.51	43.91
01:00	37.92	19.83	47.70	19.08	49.67	19.12	49.57	19.11	49.60
01:30	34.93	22.08	36.78	22.72	34.95	22.83	34.63	22.85	34.59
02:00	24.75	19.72	20.31	20.32	17.89	20.42	17.49	20.45	17.38
02:30	22.86	12.10	47.07	15.75	31.10	16.02	29.94	15.79	30.95
03:00	20.49	18.38	10.29	16.42	19.87	16.36	20.14	16.51	19.44
03:30	18.55	18.38	0.90	16.42	11.49	16.36	11.79	16.51	11.01
04:00	18.82	18.67	0.77	16.14	14.23	16.06	14.65	16.19	13.96
04:30	19.59	19.59	0.00	18.18	7.20	18.18	7.21	18.20	7.08
05:00	19.57	20.77	6.13	19.57	0.00	19.59	0.10	19.57	0.00
05:30	21.61	21.61	0.00	21.62	0.03	21.71	0.49	21.61	0.00
06:00	21.14	27.57	30.42	23.25	9.96	23.11	9.33	23.23	9.88
06:30	21.63	34.57	59.81	28.90	33.62	28.62	32.31	29.40	35.91
07:00	21.63	31.70	46.55	34.46	59.33	34.89	61.29	33.87	56.61
07:30	19.85	28.33	42.70	27.44	38.22	27.48	38.43	27.58	38.97
08:00	21.66	33.69	55.53	28.57	31.90	28.39	31.06	28.69	32.45
08:30	30.75	36.26	17.93	30.93	0.59	30.75	0.00	31.04	0.94
09:00	31.95	32.13	0.55	36.21	13.32	36.51	14.28	36.61	14.59
09:30	32.57	30.55	6.19	36.17	11.05	36.55	12.21	36.64	12.50
10:00	40.81	30.44	25.42	38.46	5.75	38.97	4.50	39.01	4.42
10:30	44.21	33.67	23.84	36.87	16.59	37.12	16.03	37.34	15.55
11:00	43.97	33.58	23.63	37.39	14.97	37.64	14.39	38.01	13.55
11:30	44.66	37.01	17.12	35.19	21.21	35.19	21.20	35.45	20.63
12:00	43.25	40.66	5.99	36.89	14.70	36.87	14.75	36.77	14.99