Bayesian Approach for Sequential Probabilistic Back Analysis of Uncertain Geomechanical Parameters and Reliability Updating of Tunneling-Induced Ground Settlements

<div>Validation of the surrogate models underlying three representative excavation steps. (a) Comparison of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.14241pt" id="M104" style="vertical-align:-3.1815pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 12.001 9.14241" width="12.001pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.929,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (b) Comparison of the PDF of <svg height="9.14241pt" id="M105" style="vertical-align:-3.1815pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 12.001 9.14241" width="12.001pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.929,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg><sub>.</sub> (c) Comparison of <svg height="9.14241pt" id="M106" style="vertical-align:-3.1815pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 12.001 9.14241" width="12.001pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.929,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g></svg><sub>.</sub> (d) Comparison of the PDF of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.14241pt" id="M107" style="vertical-align:-3.1815pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 12.001 9.14241" width="12.001pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.929,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (e) Comparison of <svg height="9.25202pt" id="M108" style="vertical-align:-3.29111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 12.001 9.25202" width="12.001pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.929,3.132)"><path d="M158 548H390L417 615L410 623H122L83 318C105 326 143 337 185 337C296 337 350 275 350 188C350 116 308 42 225 42C164 42 122 74 100 93C90 101 82 99 72 92C60 82 51 68 50 59C48 46 52 38 66 24C82 9 125 -12 172 -12C225 -11 292 15 346 59C408 108 437 166 437 226C437 309 371 397 242 397C214 397 170 382 133 369L158 548Z"></path></g></svg><sub>.</sub> (f) Comparison of the PDF of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.25202pt" id="M109" style="vertical-align:-3.29111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 12.001 9.25202" width="12.001pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.929,3.132)"><path d="M158 548H390L417 615L410 623H122L83 318C105 326 143 337 185 337C296 337 350 275 350 188C350 116 308 42 225 42C164 42 122 74 100 93C90 101 82 99 72 92C60 82 51 68 50 59C48 46 52 38 66 24C82 9 125 -12 172 -12C225 -11 292 15 346 59C408 108 437 166 437 226C437 309 371 397 242 397C214 397 170 382 133 369L158 548Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Advances in Civil Engineering

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Figure 5

Figure 5: Bayesian Approach for Sequential Probabilistic Back Analysis of Uncertain Geomechanical Parameters and Reliability Updating of Tunneling-Induced Ground Settlements 

Figure 5 | Bayesian Approach for Sequential Probabilistic Back Analysis of Uncertain Geomechanical Parameters and Reliability Updating of Tunneling-Induced Ground Settlements 