Quantifying Schedule Delay Risk in Construction Projects: A Data-Driven Approach with BIM and Probabilistic Reliability Analysis

Table 6

Schedule network failure evaluation (deadline = 168 days).

Methods	Failure probability (%)	Variation coefficient	Running time (ms)
LUBE	1.52	—	0.3 ± 0.5
Triangular fuzzy CPM	27.64	—	0.7 ± 0.5
Direct MCS  (baseline)	1.83	2.46%	2914.8 ± 49.2
Subset simulation	1.74	5.63%	751.5 ± 32.7
FORM	1.57	—	0.7 ± 0.6
SORM (ours)	1.75	—	1.5 ± 0.7