Modelling Customs Revenue in Ghana Using Novel Time Series Methods

<table class="table-group" id="tab4"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left"> </td><td class="align_center">Residual SD</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 13.2276ptpx;"><svg height="11.7978pt" id="M72" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 13.2276 11.7978" width="13.2276pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.151,-5.741)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Harvey’s goodness of fit</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">BSTS Model 1</td><td class="align_center">24.78</td><td class="align_center">0.992</td><td class="align_center">0.27</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">BSTS Model 2</td><td class="align_center">23.13</td><td class="align_center">0.993</td><td class="align_center">0.27</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">BSTS Model 3</td><td class="align_center">14.01</td><td class="align_center">0.997</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 29.5245ptpx;"><svg height="8.69875pt" id="M73" style="vertical-align:-0.3499298pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 29.5245 8.69875" width="29.5245pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H52V230H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,7.631,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.871,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.835,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.075,0)"><path d="M137 343C167 482 260 545 321 574C357 591 397 603 429 609L423 641C382 634 335 622 295 608C189 570 37 457 37 238C37 84 125 -12 242 -12C362 -12 447 89 447 209C447 311 374 393 267 393C247 393 226 386 204 376L137 343ZM227 337C318 337 361 256 361 173C361 105 336 22 258 22C176 22 126 120 126 240C126 266 127 291 132 310C155 323 189 337 227 337Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Comparison of various BSTS components.</div>

Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing

tab4

Table 4

Table 4: Modelling Customs Revenue in Ghana Using Novel Time Series Methods 