Research Article

Study on the Precursor Signal Capturing of Unfavorable Weather: Months/Years in Advance to Ultra-Early Forecast for Hourly Transient Weather Changes during the Beijing Winter Olympics

Table 1

The forecast target classifications of short-medium, long-term term, and climate trends.

ClassificationsForecasting time limitCommonly used prediction contentCommon predictive keywords

Short-medium term forecastNow casting1–6 hoursStrong weather with hourly rate of changeHourly changes of rain, snow, strong wind and hail
Rain, snow, strong wind, and hailHourly changes of air pollution component
Short term forecast24–72 hours24 hours typhoon and rainstormDaily changes of typhoon, cyclone, and rainfall situations
Visibility and air qualityDaily changes of main air pollution component
Medium term forecast5–7 hoursRainy bands, tropical, or temperate cyclonesTyphoon, cyclone, and rainfall
The impact of movingAir quality

Long-term forecastMonthly forecast1–3 monthsTemperature, humidity, and rainfallTemperature, humidity, and rainfall
Or 3–6 monthsDrought, floods, and air qualityMonthly forecast and air quality
Seasonal forecastYearly forecast (winter and summer)Rainy season, dry season, winter, and summerRainy season, dry season, winter, and summer
1-2 years (winter and summer)The establishment and turning of the monsoon changesForecast of the monsoon establishment date
Yearly forecast1–5 yearsCold, warm. drought, and flood trendsCold, warm, drought, and flood trends

Forecast trends in climateShort-term trends in climate change5–10 yearsTemperature humidity and rainfallAnomaly corresponds to in 10 years average of temperature humidity and rainfall
Forecast trends in climate change>10 yearsTen-year trend of meteorological elementsAnomaly corresponds to in 50 years average of temperature humidity and rainfall
Ultra-long-term climate predictionsForecasting trends over a hundred years (century)Change trends of temperature humidity and rainfall over a centuryAnomaly corresponds to a hundred-years average of air temperature