Statistical Analysis for the Detection of Change Points and the Evaluation of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends of the Moulouya Basin (Morocco)

Table 5

Results of the 3 change point detection methods applied to monthly mean temperature data, July–December, between 1980 and 2020 in the Moulouya watershed.

	July			August			September			October			November			December
	value	Significance	Date	value	Significance	Date	value	Significance	Date	value	Significance	Date	value	Significance	Date	value	Significance	Date
Pettitt’s test
S1	≤0.001		2004	≤0.01		2002	0.023		2009	≤0.01		2000	0.712	N	—	0.483	N	—
S2	≤0.001		2002	≤0.01		1999	0.069	—	—	0.028		2003	0.946	N	—	0.866	N	—
S3	≤0.001		2004	≤0.01		2003	0.010		2009	≤0.01		2003	0.549	N	—	0.448	N	—
S4	≤0.001		2002	≤0.01		2003	≤0.01		2005	0.015		2004	0.858	N	—	0.299	N	—
S5	≤0.001		2005	≤0.01		2009	≤0.01		2009	0.145	N	—	0.217	N	—	0.021		2010
S6	≤0.01		1997	≤0.01		1998	0.495	—	—	≤0.01		2000	0.185	N	—	0.044		2008
S7	0.091	N	—	0.437	N	—	≤0.01		1992	0.023		2000	0.056	N	—	0.246	N	—
S8	≤0.001		2002	≤0.01		2002	0.040		2009	≤0.01		2000	0.793	N	—	0.561	N	—
S9	≤0.001		2003	≤0.01		2002	0.023		2009	0.101	N	—	0.464	N	—	0.708	N	—
Buishand’s range test
S1	≤0.001		2004	≤0.001		2002	0.037		2006	≤0.01		2000	0.51	N	—	0.137	N	—
S2	≤0.001		2002	≤0.01		1998	0.079	N	—	0.019		2003	0.9	N	—	0.702	N	—
S3	≤0.001		2004	≤0.001		2003	0.049		2003	0.010		2003	0.83	N	—	0.711	N	—
S4	≤0.001		2005	≤0.001		2003	≤0.01		2005	0.019		2004	0.9	N	—	0.136	N	—
S5	≤0.001		2005	≤0.001		2009	0.020		2009	0.097	N	—	0.25	N	—	0.043		2010
S6	≤0.01		1997	≤0.01		1998	0.897	N	—	≤0.01		2000	0.22	N	—	0.041		2008
S7	0.588	N	—	0.306	N	—	0.032		1992	0.029		2000	0.04		^###	0.619	N	—
S8	≤0.01		2002	≤0.001		2009	0.040		2009	≤0.01		2000	0.91	N	—	0.527	N	—
S9	≤0.001		2003	≤0.001		1998	0.087	N	—	0.106	N	—	0.12	N	—	0.054	N	—
von Neumann ratio test
S1	≤0.001			≤0.001			≤0.001			0.136	N		0.507	N		≤0.01
S2	≤0.001			≤0.01			≤0.01			0.399	N		0.760	N		0.456	N
S3	≤0.01			≤0.01			≤0.001			≤0.01			0.989	N		0.051	N
S4	≤0.001			≤0.001			≤0.001			0.225	N		0.978	N		≤0.01
S5	≤0.001			≤0.001			≤0.01			0.647	N		0.480	N		0.435	N
S6	0.012			≤0.01			0.634	N		0.119	N		0.199	N		0.038
S7	≤0.01			0.011			≤0.01			0.739	N		0.658	N		0.243	N
S8	≤0.01			≤0.001			≤0.001			0.466	N		0.291	N		0.043
S9	0.011			0.042			≤0.001			0.645	N		0.025			≤0.001

N, no significant change point. Significant point of change at 0.1 level. Significant point of change at 0.05 level. Significant change point at 0.01 threshold.