A Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Thinning Corrosion Rate of Steel Heat Exchanger in Hydrodesulfurization Plants

<div>Histogram of the predicted wall thickness and the observations in HE-A (a) with the prediction error histogram using <svg height="12.75954pt" id="M80" style="vertical-align:-3.510335pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.049816 -9.249205 23.902751 12.75954" width="23.902751pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,1.429,-.222)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.229,3.132)"><path d="M247 635C116 635 39 518 39 421C39 315 113 237 221 237C239 237 258 241 281 253L349 289C315 140 204 42 60 19L66 -15C90 -15 153 -5 207 16C344 70 447 199 447 385C447 521 373 635 247 635ZM231 598C329 598 356 478 356 390C356 371 355 347 352 325C330 309 297 297 262 297C179 297 127 369 127 456C127 515 156 598 231 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.677,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.126,3.132)"><path d="M611 626L575 651L170 -9L204 -35L611 626ZM200 635C93 635 50 532 50 449C50 365 94 264 199 264C306 264 349 365 349 450C349 534 304 635 200 635ZM199 601C264 601 273 501 273 450S264 298 200 298C139 298 126 398 126 450S139 601 199 601ZM590 359C485 359 440 256 440 173C440 89 485 -12 589 -12C694 -12 738 89 738 173C738 256 694 359 590 359ZM589 325C653 325 662 225 662 173C662 124 653 22 590 22C529 22 516 122 516 174C516 227 529 325 589 325Z"></path></g></svg> (b) and <svg height="12.75954pt" id="M81" style="vertical-align:-3.510335pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.049816 -9.249205 23.902766 12.75954" width="23.902766pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,1.429,-.222)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.229,3.132)"><path d="M253 635C142 635 71 555 71 471C71 401 113 353 178 316C144 294 106 267 91 252C70 231 46 202 46 157C46 51 132 -12 241 -12C328 -12 442 52 442 168C442 257 379 305 311 343C354 373 380 398 388 407C406 428 417 458 417 487C417 568 348 635 253 635ZM240 600C288 600 340 563 340 481C340 423 313 387 279 360C207 394 148 427 148 499C148 549 182 600 240 600ZM252 23C188 23 129 73 129 163C129 217 162 266 211 298C289 260 360 217 360 144C360 69 312 23 252 23Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.677,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.126,3.132)"><path d="M611 626L575 651L170 -9L204 -35L611 626ZM200 635C93 635 50 532 50 449C50 365 94 264 199 264C306 264 349 365 349 450C349 534 304 635 200 635ZM199 601C264 601 273 501 273 450S264 298 200 298C139 298 126 398 126 450S139 601 199 601ZM590 359C485 359 440 256 440 173C440 89 485 -12 589 -12C694 -12 738 89 738 173C738 256 694 359 590 359ZM589 325C653 325 662 225 662 173C662 124 653 22 590 22C529 22 516 122 516 174C516 227 529 325 589 325Z"></path></g></svg> (c).</div>

Advances in Materials Science and Engineering

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: A Bayesian Approach for Estimating the Thinning Corrosion Rate of Steel Heat Exchanger in Hydrodesulfurization Plants 