Research Article
Emergency Surgery Mortality (ESM) Score to Predict Mortality and Improve Patient Care in Emergency Surgery
Table 5
Performance of ESM score ≥4 to predict postoperative mortality in Training and Validation groups.
| Parameter | Training group (n = 596) | Validation group (n = 162) | Value | 95% CI | Value | 95% CI |
| AUC | 0.83 | 0.77–0.89 | 0.81 | 0.70–0.92 | Sensitivity (%) | 70.2 | 59.3–79.7 | 69.2 | 48.2–85.7 | Specificity (%) | 94.9 | 92.7–96.7 | 93.4 | 87.8–96.9 | Positive likelihood ratio | 13.8 | 9.3–20.6 | 10.5 | 5.3–20.7 | Negative likelihood ratio | 0.3 | 0.2–0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2–0.6 | Mortality prevalence (%) | 14.1 | 11.4–17.2 | 16.1 | 10.8–22.6 | Positive predictive value (%) | 69.4 | 60.4–77.2 | 66.7 | 50.3–79.8 | Negative predictive value (%) | 95.1 | 93.3–96.4 | 94.1 | 89.9–96.6 | Accuracy (%) | 91.4 | 88.9–93.6 | 89.5 | 83.7–93.8 |
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ESM: Emergency surgery mortality; AUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
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