Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions
Table 3
Verification results.
Observed values
Predicted values
Hua County study (aged 45–69 years)
Prevalence of BCH/mD (%)
22.04
8.56 (95% CI: 6.48 - 10.64)
Prevalence of MD (%)
0.57
1.03 (95% CI: 0.72 - 1.34)
Prevalence of SD (%)
0.41
0.59 (95% CI: 0.4 - 0.79)
Prevalence of ESCC (%)
0.33
0.4 (95% CI: 0.31 - 0.5)
Prevalence of total oesophageal high-grade lesions (%)
0.74
1 (95% CI: 0.78 - 1.21)
Cixian County study (40–69 years)
10-year incidence of ESCC in control arm (%)
5.92
3.54
10-year incidence of ESCC in screeing arm (%)
4.17
2.47
HR (screening VS. control)
0.698
0.694
Total number of severe squamous dysplasia, squamous carcinoma in situ, and squamous cell carcinoma. ESCC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; BCH, basal cell hyperplasia; mD, mild dysplasia; MD, moderate dysplasia; SD, severe dysplasia; HR, hazard ratio.
