A Mathematical and Statistical Estimation of Potential Transmission and Severity of COVID-19: A Combined Study of Romania and Pakistan

<div>Variation in the number of active patients on the transmission rate <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M89" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 7.68094 12.7178" width="7.68094pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> death rate <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.49473pt" id="M90" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.84582 9.49473" width="6.84582pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 514C482 587 419 712 303 712C238 712 174 667 174 603C174 561 205 514 249 449C219 438 187 422 162 407C93 366 23 283 23 177C23 69 87 -12 190 -12C244 -12 288 5 328 33C406 87 444 170 444 249C444 329 404 391 331 475C265 550 222 605 222 627C222 647 238 657 267 657C355 657 421 585 484 499L494 514ZM359 234C359 143 319 30 219 30C172 30 114 75 114 178C114 275 163 343 195 378C212 397 241 415 269 425C305 382 359 313 359 234Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> recovery rate <span class="nowrap"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M91" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.51131 6.1673" width="7.51131pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M545 106L524 126C493 85 467 65 455 65C438 65 427 113 405 238C448 295 498 362 543 439L533 448L478 435C453 386 423 331 398 295H395C370 404 347 448 282 448C169 448 23 309 23 153C23 54 65 -12 128 -12C203 -12 283 70 339 155H341C360 29 380 -12 411 -12C444 -12 491 11 545 106ZM333 204C265 95 210 54 169 54C137 54 113 96 113 171C113 302 191 405 252 405C301 405 318 306 333 204Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and the inhibition effect <span class="nowrap"><svg height="6.37608pt" id="M92" style="vertical-align:-0.2324901pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 6.02377 6.37608" width="6.02377pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M213 67C239 136 257 225 255 300C253 353 242 447 164 447C112 447 54 389 41 319L67 309C90 362 117 377 134 377C184 377 189 277 190 239C193 153 164 43 146 -12H176C278 73 450 253 450 390C450 439 410 463 396 463C384 463 380 459 382 449C385 440 389 415 389 402C389 284 312 146 216 67H213Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

BioMed Research International

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: A Mathematical and Statistical Estimation of Potential Transmission and Severity of COVID-19: A Combined Study of Romania and Pakistan 