Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using Alpha-Sutte Indicator: A Comparison with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

Table 3

Summary measures of candidate ARIMA models—USA series.

Model	BIC	AIC	AICc
ARIMA (2,2,2)	4,217	4,200	4,200.5
ARIMA (0,2,0)	4,298	4,294.6	4,294.6
ARIMA (1,2,0)	4,303.9	4,297	4,297
ARIMA (0,2,1)	4,302.9	4,296	4,296
ARIMA (1,2,2)	4,303.3	4,289.7	4,289.8
ARIMA (2,2,1)	4,301	4,287.6	4,287.8
ARIMA (3,2,2)	Infinity	Infinity	Infinity
ARIMA (2,2,3)	4,303	4,282.6	4,282.9
ARIMA (1,2,1)	4,300	4,290	4,290
ARIMA (1,2,3)	4,296.6	4,279.6	4,279.8
ARIMA (3,2,1)	4,277.7	4,260.7	4,260.9
ARIMA (3,2,3)	4,207.7	4,183.9	4,184
ARIMA (4,2,3)	Infinity	Infinity	Infinity
ARIMA (3,2,4)	4,212.9	4,185.7	4,186
ARIMA (2,2,4)	Infinity	Infinity	Infinity
ARIMA (4,2,2)	Infinity	Infinity	Infinity
ARIMA (4,2,4)	4,218	4,187.6	4,188