Internal Validation of the Predictive Performance of Models Based on Three ED and ICU Scoring Systems to Predict Inhospital Mortality for Intensive Care Patients Referred from the Emergency Department

Table 3

Intercept and slope of the linear predictor of the logistic regression for all models to predict inhospital mortality in ED, the optimism-corrected performance measures, and various threshold-based metrics (the threshold is itself based on the Youden index).

Models	Intercept	Slope	AUC-ROC (95% CI)	AUC-PR (95% CI)	BS	SE	HL	Threshold	Sen	Spe	PPV	NPV	Accuracy
WPS	-2.447	0.546	0.728 (0.71-0.75)	0.517 (0.50-0.53)	0.178	0.086	<0.05	2.5	0.669	0.686	0.435	0.851	0.682
REMS	-3.21	0.32	0.761 (0.74-0.78)	0.547 (0.53-0.56)	0.165	0.009	0.192	7.5	0.644	0.740	0.472	0.852	0.714
MEWS	-2.19	0.29	0.682 (0.66-0.70)	0.445 (0.42-0.46)	0.183	0.011	0.23	3.5	0.694	0.584	0.375	0.841	0.613
APACHE II	-5.691	0.201	0.810 (0.79-0.83)	0.630 (0.61-0.65)	0.157	0.008	0.9	24.5	0.661	0.807	0.553	0.868	0.768
SAPS II	-4.22	0.078	0.767 (0.75-0.79)	0.559 (0.54-0.58)	0.170	0.009	0.073	44.5	0.662	0.730	0.470	0.857	0.712
SOFA	-2.71	0.466	0.785 (0.77-0.80)	0.564 (0.54-0.57)	0.182	0.009	<0.05	3.5	0.706	0.722	0.478	0.872	0.718

Abbreviations: AUC-ROC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC-PR: area under the precision-recall curve; CI: confidence interval; BS: Brier score; PPV: positive predictive value; SE: standard error; HL: Hosmer-Lemeshow; Sen: sensitivity; Spe: specificity; NPV: negative predictive value; SCS: Simple Clinical Score; WPS: Worthing Physiological Score; RAPS: Rapid Acute Physiology Score; REMS: Rapid Emergency Medicine Score; MEWS: Modified Early Warning Score; RLD: routine laboratory data; ED: emergency department. This threshold is calculated based on the Youden index.