Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident’s Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

Figure 3

The calibration graphs reveal that the actual mortality is similar to the predicted one by the prediction models (qSOFA, mSOFA). Without recalibration by regressing the outcome on the predictions, physicians’ prognoses indicate overpredictions of 15 to 25% and underpredictions above 30%. After recalibration, in the fourth graph, the calibration is improved.