Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident’s Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

Table 3

Performance indices of the qSOFA, mSOFA, and physician prognosis models for predicting in-hospital mortality.

Models	AUC-ROC (95% CI)	AUC-PR (95% CI)	BS	Threshold	SE	SP	PPV	NPV	Acc
mSOFA	0.74 (0.71-0.77)	0.45 (0.43-0.47)	0.130	2.5	0.657	0.689	0.336	0.893	0.683
qSOFA	0.70 (0.67-0.73)	0.38 (0.36-0.40)	0.141	0.5	0.76	0.57	0.296	0.908	0.604
Physician prognosis	0.68 (0.65-0.71)	0.35 (0.33-0.37)	0.165	21	0.640	0.629	0.292	0.879	0.631

Abbreviations: AUROC: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve; PRAUC: area under the precision-recall curve; CI: confidence interval; BS: Brier score; SE: sensitivity; SP: specificity; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; Acc: accuracy.