Application of Neural Network with Autocorrelation in Long-Term Forecasting of Systemic Financial Risk

Table 3

Definition of selected indicators.

Indicator	Definition
Consumer confidence index	Reflects consumers’ expectations to overall economic development and the consumer sector
Leverage ratio of residential sector	It is the ratio of residents’ debt to disposable income and an important indicator of the level of residents’ debt
State housing boom index	A comprehensive index reflecting the boom status of the real estate industry
CSI corporate bond index	A comprehensive index reflecting the overall price movement trend of corporate bonds in the exchange market
Commercial bank provision coverage rate	Reflects bank’s financial stability and loss absorption capacity
Nonperforming loan ratio of commercial banks	Reflects the safety of the bank’s credit assets
Loan-to-deposit ratio of commercial banks	The ratio of total bank loans to total deposits
Liquidity ratio of commercial banks	The ratio of liquid asset to liquid liability, which measures the overall level of commercial banks’ liquidity
Interbank asset dependence	Ratio of interbank assets to total assets
Interbank liability dependence	Ratio of interbank liabilities to total liabilities