An Adaptive Information Borrowing Platform Design for Testing Drug Candidates of COVID-19

Table 2

Operating characteristics of time trend calibration compared with noncalibration.

					Time trend calibration						Noncalibration
Scenario	Drug	Time trend	Hazard ratio	Mean TTCR (T/C)	Pr (reject)	Pr (early stopping for efficacy)	Pr (early stopping for futility)				Pr (reject)
1	1	0.2	1	5/5	0.087	0.033	0.120	184	92	92	0.084
	2	0.2	1.5	3.3/5	0.951	0.811	0.002	127	79	48	0.922
	3	0.2	1	3.3/3.3	0.068	0.026	0.096	187	113	74	0.061
	4	0.45	1	1.48/1.48	0.119	0.097	0.007	190	102	88	0.961
	5	0.2	1	3.3/3.3	0.080	0.028	0.081	189	125	64	0.011
2	1	0.2	1	5/5	0.087	0.033	0.120	184	92	92	0.063
	2	0.2	1	5/5	0.072	0.019	0.106	187	115	72	0.053
	3	0.15	1.75	5.7/10	0.973	0.897	0.002	115	58	57	0.556
	4	0.2	1	2.85/2.85	0.095	0.045	0.081	186	96	90	0.621
	5	0.2	1	2.85/2.85	0.117	0.052	0.059	188	118	70	0.136
3	1	0.2	1	5/5	0.070	0.037	0.111	184	92	92	0.065
	2	0.45	1	2.2/2.2	0.063	0.036	0.051	190	97	93	0.910
	3	0.2	1	5/5	0.088	0.035	0.139	180	110	70	0.010
	4	0.2	1.4	3.57/5	0.888	0.715	0.003	139	94	45	0.427
	5	0.2	1	3.57/3.57	0.064	0.021	0.103	187	117	70	0.024
4	1	0.2	1	5/5	0.073	0.027	0.102	186	93	93	0.082
	2	0.2	1.5	3.33/5	0.948	0.834	0.001	123	77	46	0.943
	3	0.2	1.5	2.22/3.33	0.921	0.752	0.001	139	85	54	0.910
	4	0.089	1	5/5	0.073	0.027	0.109	186	93	93	0.004
	5	0.2	1	2.22/2.22	0.095	0.043	0.051	191	116	75	0.626
5	1	0.4	1	2.5/2.5	0.041	0.006	0.070	192	96	96	0.058
	2	0.2	1.5	3.33/5	0.904	0.699	0.004	142	71	71	0.427
	3	0.2	0.8	4.16/3.33	0.002	0.001	0.551	148	88	60	0.001
	4	0.2	1	3.33/3.33	0.081	0.028	0.104	186	123	63	0.018
	5	0.2	1	3.33/3.33	0.110	0.039	0.079	187	132	55	0.016
6	1	0.2	1	5/5	0.090	0.035	0.119	182	91	91	0.073
	2	0.2	1.5	3.33/5	0.953	0.822	0.001	124	77	47	0.940
	3	0.4	0.8	2.08/1.67	0.014	0.011	0.195	186	97	89	0.393
	4	0.2	1	3.33/3.33	0.079	0.023	0.130	184	111	73	0.011
	5	0.1	1.5	4.44/6.67	0.864	0.670	0.011	142	71	71	0.260

Note. TTCR (T/C), time to clinical remission of experimental arm and control arm, respectively.