Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission

<div>Numerically computed mean of the infected <svg height="8.98583pt" id="M195" style="vertical-align:-0.3499308pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 33.7044 8.98583" width="33.7044pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M828 650H570L564 622C646 614 650 609 634 524L604 366H253L281 524C296 608 308 615 382 622L388 650H132L126 622C211 615 214 609 198 524L121 122C106 42 102 35 23 28L17 0H276L282 28C196 35 191 40 206 122L243 324H597L559 123C544 42 537 35 452 28L446 0H710L716 28C632 35 628 43 643 122L719 524C735 610 741 615 822 622L828 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.829,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H323V490H265V280H52V230H265V-3H323V230H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,24.365,0)"><path d="M686 28C612 35 607 44 591 112C563 234 541 360 519 489L489 666L457 658L147 121C100 40 89 36 24 28L17 0H240L250 28C168 34 159 41 190 101L262 237H482C495 180 503 137 510 91C517 47 514 35 441 28L433 0H677L686 28ZM475 280H285L429 541H431L475 280Z"></path></g></svg> for different values of <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M196" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 7.68094 12.7178" width="7.68094pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g></svg> in log-log scale, for 100 realizations of the spatial SHAR model. Parameter values are <span class="nowrap"><svg height="15.2949pt" id="M197" style="vertical-align:-3.429399pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.8655 62.918 15.2949" width="62.918pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M478 372C478 418 458 448 431 448C409 448 389 431 389 410C389 404 391 400 394 395C398 388 406 371 406 348C406 253 308 122 251 51H249C254 122 249 257 231 336C212 421 189 448 159 448C126 448 75 412 23 327L48 306C83 354 103 371 115 371C125 371 134 360 144 334C185 224 192 64 183 -19C146 -100 116 -202 110 -244L125 -261C154 -259 208 -234 222 -220C222 -194 225 -84 235 -23C247 -3 273 36 308 79C379 165 478 288 478 372Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.148,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.411,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.651,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.615,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.855,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,45.27,0)"><path d="M517 51L485 54C448 58 441 63 441 115V712C404 700 337 684 285 678V653C357 648 362 645 362 580V437C339 446 309 449 295 449C159 449 38 340 38 201C38 61 143 -12 223 -12C234 -12 261 -6 301 17L362 53V-12C420 9 495 22 517 26V51ZM362 85C338 67 301 51 266 51C201 51 128 109 128 228C128 373 212 411 259 411C296 411 338 395 362 360V85Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,52.16,-6.016)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,57.72,-6.016)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.0719pt" id="M198" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.8655 48.2904 12.0719" width="48.2904pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M545 106L524 126C493 85 467 65 455 65C438 65 427 113 405 238C448 295 498 362 543 439L533 448L478 435C453 386 423 331 398 295H395C370 404 347 448 282 448C169 448 23 309 23 153C23 54 65 -12 128 -12C203 -12 283 70 339 155H341C360 29 380 -12 411 -12C444 -12 491 11 545 106ZM333 204C265 95 210 54 169 54C137 54 113 96 113 171C113 302 191 405 252 405C301 405 318 306 333 204Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.017,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.28,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.695,0)"><path d="M517 51L485 54C448 58 441 63 441 115V712C404 700 337 684 285 678V653C357 648 362 645 362 580V437C339 446 309 449 295 449C159 449 38 340 38 201C38 61 143 -12 223 -12C234 -12 261 -6 301 17L362 53V-12C420 9 495 22 517 26V51ZM362 85C338 67 301 51 266 51C201 51 128 109 128 228C128 373 212 411 259 411C296 411 338 395 362 360V85Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.585,-6.016)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,43.145,-6.016)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.7782pt" id="M199" style="vertical-align:-3.42938pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 36.9709 11.7782" width="36.9709pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M471 401C471 442 455 448 440 448C421 448 389 439 366 424C314 390 233 331 165 242H163L187 345C193 372 197 393 197 409C197 435 189 448 174 448C146 448 80 408 23 349L40 327C64 351 97 373 107 373C115 373 118 366 111 337L29 -4L36 -12C56 -4 83 3 110 9C123 69 136 126 150 172C227 283 336 381 377 381C392 381 396 370 379 298L326 74C290 -77 273 -172 273 -197C273 -219 316 -261 346 -261L353 -246C348 -227 352 -174 374 -66L457 310C467 352 471 381 471 401Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.055,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.318,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.558,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.522,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.3916pt" id="M200" style="vertical-align:-3.42948pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.96212 37.8974 12.3916" width="37.8974pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M542 242C542 369 469 429 379 468C370 472 372 496 376 513L416 681L400 691L344 648L219 51C167 69 113 128 113 217C113 324 166 387 266 428L252 459C124 418 23 336 23 202C23 95 90 13 205 -8L182 -132C165 -222 191 -254 209 -261L215 -258L270 -7C415 -4 542 98 542 242ZM469 232C469 126 403 33 279 39L355 409C399 394 469 331 469 232Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.978,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.241,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.481,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.445,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="15.0208pt" id="M201" style="vertical-align:-3.429399pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 42.4341 15.0208" width="42.4341pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M516 277C516 378 460 448 376 448C335 448 288 434 240 401C158 345 127 277 107 159C53 -161 38 -221 23 -247L28 -261C43 -260 95 -250 114 -226C122 -216 129 -199 146 -75C152 -29 157 0 164 31C182 9 206 -12 237 -12C267 -12 325 8 376 46C451 102 516 179 516 277ZM432 259C432 134 366 40 259 40C236 40 204 48 171 76L195 203C219 327 253 400 326 400C398 400 432 336 432 259Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.642,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.905,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,27.287,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,32.847,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,37.279,-5.741)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods

fig8

Figure 8

Figure 8: Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission 