Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa

<div>New cases in South Africa for the first four waves. The first wave from <svg height="12.4783pt" id="M373" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.4783" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.482,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.312,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of March to <svg height="12.3217pt" id="M374" style="vertical-align:-0.04979992pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.3217" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.48,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.31,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of September 2020, the second wave from <svg height="12.3217pt" id="M375" style="vertical-align:-0.04979992pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.3217" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.48,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.31,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of September 2020 to <svg height="12.4783pt" id="M376" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.4783" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.48,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.31,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of April 2021, the third wave from <svg height="12.3217pt" id="M377" style="vertical-align:-0.04979992pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.3217" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.48,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.31,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of April to <svg height="12.4783pt" id="M378" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.4783" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.481,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.312,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of October 2021, and the fourth wave from <svg height="12.4783pt" id="M379" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.4783" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.48,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.31,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of October 2021 to <svg height="12.4783pt" id="M380" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.2719 20.8428 12.4783" width="20.8428pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.481,-5.741)"><path d="M298 36L289 62C276 55 253 45 228 45C202 45 169 60 169 141V397H276C289 405 292 426 282 437H169V574L155 576L90 509V437H45L17 408L21 397H90V107C90 28 125 -12 188 -12C198 -12 213 -8 230 1L298 36Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.312,-5.741)"><path d="M513 0V26C455 31 447 37 447 103V278C447 398 390 449 309 449C255 449 202 412 166 376V712C127 700 67 684 19 677V653C85 647 87 643 87 580V103C87 37 79 31 19 26L18 0H231V26C171 32 166 39 166 103V341C194 373 232 392 270 392C337 392 368 351 368 269V103C368 38 360 32 302 26V0H513Z"></path></g></svg> of April, 2022. The blue dots denote the new cases from the data, and the red lines denote our mathematical model prediction. We can see that in each wave, our model constructed fitted well for the given parameters in Table <a href="../tab3/">3</a>.</div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 with Periodic Transmission: The Case of South Africa 