Comparing Statistical Models to Predict Dengue Fever Notifications

Table 3

Comparison of out-of-sample predictions (external validation) between ARIMA and K-H models.

MAPE	ARIMA	K-H
Overall	17.54	17.21
Stratified (in 4 week intervals)
Year 2007
Weeks 1 to 4	17.07	14.27
5 to 8	28.60	25.62
9 to 12	33.41	30.63
13 to 16	32.52	33.09
17 to 20	21.83	20.53
21 to 24	20.64	19.76
25 to 28	12.86	13.22
29 to 32	11.53	14.40
33 to 36	8.54	10.26
37 to 40	5.07	6.50
41 to 44	18.49	17.42
45 to 48	8.54	10.35
49 to 52	15.70	12.44
Year 2008
Weeks 1 to 4	11.13	11.16
5 to 8	29.09	25.63
9 to 12	16.39	19.41
13 to 16	15.51	10.77
17 to 20	19.21	18.38
21 to 24	9.83	10.07