Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Rift Valley Fever

<table class="table-group" width="800px"><tr class="fig-image" id="a"><td><img alt="627586.fig.006a" src="https://static-preview.hindawi.com/articles/cmmm/volume-2014/627586/figures/627586.fig.006a.jpg"/></td></tr><tr class="fig-caption"><td align="center"><table><tr><td><b>(a) </b>Sensitivity and elasticity of <svg height="16.025" id="M345" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 23.75 16.025" width="23.75" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.737)"><path d="M852 669l7 -19q-33 -13 -66 -38q83 -53 83 -139q0 -65 -49 -111q-49 -47 -131 -50v-2q54 -40 54 -84q0 -36 -38 -97t-38 -77q0 -34 32 -34q52 0 145 101l17 -16q-100 -115 -176 -115q-38 0 -65.5 23.5t-27.5 58.5q-1 28 20.5 61t43.5 63t20 51q0 48 -33 48q-30 0 -47 11
q-81 -166 -177 -242.5t-219 -76.5q-77 0 -125 36t-48 87q0 31 17 51t42 20q22 0 36.5 -13.5t14.5 -34.5t-11.5 -34.5t-31.5 -13.5q-23 0 -30 12h-2q0 -28 35 -54q34 -25 85 -25q94 0 152 52q60 53 145 203q75 133 131 214q54 75 121 124q-76 48 -192 48q-150 0 -250 -75
q-101 -75 -101 -174q0 -41 30 -68.5t73 -27.5q158 0 205 245h20q-8 -107 -69 -191q-62 -84 -158 -84q-63 0 -102.5 35.5t-39.5 94.5q0 107 111 191t282 84q124 0 221 -59q38 24 84 41zM814 486q0 64 -48 102q-7 -6 -14 -14t-14.5 -18l-10.5 -14q-4 -5 -35 -55l-6 -11
q-6 -11 -10 -20t-10 -20l-6 -11l-17 -36q-4 -7 -7.5 -14.5l-6 -13t-3.5 -7.5q34 0 60 -17q57 6 92 50q36 43 36 99z" id="x211B"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.35,15.825)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g>
</svg> for Arusha</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr class="fig-image" id="b"><td><img alt="627586.fig.006b" src="https://static-preview.hindawi.com/articles/cmmm/volume-2014/627586/figures/627586.fig.006b.jpg"/></td></tr><tr class="fig-caption"><td align="center"><table><tr><td><b>(b) </b>Sensitivity and elasticity of <svg height="16.025" id="M346" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 23.75 16.025" width="23.75" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.737)"><path d="M852 669l7 -19q-33 -13 -66 -38q83 -53 83 -139q0 -65 -49 -111q-49 -47 -131 -50v-2q54 -40 54 -84q0 -36 -38 -97t-38 -77q0 -34 32 -34q52 0 145 101l17 -16q-100 -115 -176 -115q-38 0 -65.5 23.5t-27.5 58.5q-1 28 20.5 61t43.5 63t20 51q0 48 -33 48q-30 0 -47 11
q-81 -166 -177 -242.5t-219 -76.5q-77 0 -125 36t-48 87q0 31 17 51t42 20q22 0 36.5 -13.5t14.5 -34.5t-11.5 -34.5t-31.5 -13.5q-23 0 -30 12h-2q0 -28 35 -54q34 -25 85 -25q94 0 152 52q60 53 145 203q75 133 131 214q54 75 121 124q-76 48 -192 48q-150 0 -250 -75
q-101 -75 -101 -174q0 -41 30 -68.5t73 -27.5q158 0 205 245h20q-8 -107 -69 -191q-62 -84 -158 -84q-63 0 -102.5 35.5t-39.5 94.5q0 107 111 191t282 84q124 0 221 -59q38 24 84 41zM814 486q0 64 -48 102q-7 -6 -14 -14t-14.5 -18l-10.5 -14q-4 -5 -35 -55l-6 -11
q-6 -11 -10 -20t-10 -20l-6 -11l-17 -36q-4 -7 -7.5 -14.5l-6 -13t-3.5 -7.5q34 0 60 -17q57 6 92 50q36 43 36 99z" id="x211B"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.35,15.825)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g>
</svg> for Dodoma</td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<table>Sensitivity and elasticity of <svg height="16.025" id="M343" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 23.75 16.025" width="23.75" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.737)"><path d="M852 669l7 -19q-33 -13 -66 -38q83 -53 83 -139q0 -65 -49 -111q-49 -47 -131 -50v-2q54 -40 54 -84q0 -36 -38 -97t-38 -77q0 -34 32 -34q52 0 145 101l17 -16q-100 -115 -176 -115q-38 0 -65.5 23.5t-27.5 58.5q-1 28 20.5 61t43.5 63t20 51q0 48 -33 48q-30 0 -47 11
q-81 -166 -177 -242.5t-219 -76.5q-77 0 -125 36t-48 87q0 31 17 51t42 20q22 0 36.5 -13.5t14.5 -34.5t-11.5 -34.5t-31.5 -13.5q-23 0 -30 12h-2q0 -28 35 -54q34 -25 85 -25q94 0 152 52q60 53 145 203q75 133 131 214q54 75 121 124q-76 48 -192 48q-150 0 -250 -75
q-101 -75 -101 -174q0 -41 30 -68.5t73 -27.5q158 0 205 245h20q-8 -107 -69 -191q-62 -84 -158 -84q-63 0 -102.5 35.5t-39.5 94.5q0 107 111 191t282 84q124 0 221 -59q38 24 84 41zM814 486q0 64 -48 102q-7 -6 -14 -14t-14.5 -18l-10.5 -14q-4 -5 -35 -55l-6 -11
q-6 -11 -10 -20t-10 -20l-6 -11l-17 -36q-4 -7 -7.5 -14.5l-6 -13t-3.5 -7.5q34 0 60 -17q57 6 92 50q36 43 36 99z" id="x211B"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,17.35,15.825)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g>
</svg> plotted against the parameters <svg height="19.4125" id="M344" style="vertical-align:-5.76988pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 17.575001 19.4125" width="17.575001" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.162)"><path d="M480 416q0 -21 -18 -41q-9 -11 -17 -7q-20 9 -42 9q-62 0 -140 -78q23 -69 88 -192q17 -31 27 -42t20 -11q16 0 62 46l17 -20q-64 -92 -119 -92q-35 0 -70 66q-41 73 -84 187q-36 -30 -62 -61q-27 -115 -35 -172q-41 -8 -78 -20l-6 6l140 612q7 28 0.5 34t-37.5 7l-34 1
l5 26q38 4 74 13.5t57 17t25 7.5q12 0 4 -32l-104 -443h2q35 38 97 93q39 35 65.5 56t62 41.5t58.5 20.5q19 0 30.5 -10t11.5 -22z" id="x1D458"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,8.612,16.25)"><path d="M244 607q0 -25 -15.5 -43t-37.5 -18q-19 0 -32 13t-13 35q0 21 15 41t39 20q20 0 32 -14t12 -34zM222 91q-29 -33 -79 -68t-75 -35q-13 0 -19 7.5t-6 31t10 65.5l62 253q5 26 -1 26q-21 0 -72 -43l-13 24q43 40 91 68t71 28q30 0 10 -78l-71 -274q-8 -30 3 -30
q16 0 76 48z" id="x1D456"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,11.861,16.25)"><path d="M394 607q0 -25 -15.5 -43t-39.5 -18q-19 0 -32 13t-13 35t16 41.5t40 19.5q20 0 32 -13.5t12 -34.5zM360 349l-57 -283q-38 -188 -122 -263q-72 -64 -114 -64q-16 0 -30 10.5t-14 22.5q0 24 21 45q15 13 26 6q30 -20 54 -20q41 0 65 95q37 147 86 415q6 34 6.5 42.5
t-5.5 11.5q-18 0 -79 -54l-14 25q48 48 96.5 79t71.5 31q29 0 9 -99z" id="x1D457"></path></g>
</svg> for climatic data in Arusha and Dodoma.</table>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

fig6

Figure 6

Figure 6: Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Rift Valley Fever 