Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department

Table 3

Parameters of models with best fit in each patient category.

	Model	Coefficients	Lag	Estimate	SE		Sig.
Total	SS	Alpha (level)	NA	0.200	0.021	9.436	0.000
		Delta (Season)	NA	0.212	0.018	6.090	0.000
VU	SARIMA	Constant	NA	30.356	1.879	16.151	0.000
		MA	1	−0.170	0.035	−4.872	0.000
		MA	3	−0.166	0.035	−4.753	0.000
		MA	4	−0.94	0.035	−2.660	0.008
		AR (Seasonal)	1	0.983	0.008	119.03	0.000
		MA (Seasonal)	1	0.885	0.023	38.324	0.000
U	SARIMA	Constant	NA	32.274	3.702	8.717	0.000
		AR	1	0.913	0.032	28.349	0.000
		MA	1	0.576	0.049	11.769	0.000
		MA	2	0.140	0.041	3.412	0.001
		AR (Seasonal)	1	0.986	0.007	137.952	0.000
		MA (Seasonal)	1	0.905	0.022	41.077	0.000

SS: seasonal exponential smoothing; SARIMA: seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average; VU: very urgent; U: urgent; NA: not applied; SE: standard error; : -value; Sig.: significance; MA: moving average; AR: autoregressive.