A Method for Improving the Prediction of Outpatient Visits for Hospital Management: Bayesian Autoregressive Analysis

Table 3

Forecasting results of outpatient visits by using AR and Bayesian AR to check the stability of the models.

Model	Metric	Site
		H1	H2	H3	H4	H5	H6	H7
AR	Order	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
	RMSE	42504.95	11571.18	26656.66	36917.47	22103.58	38841.64	11461.68
	MAPE	0.156%	0.114%	0.258%	0.229%	0.104%	0.173%	0.156%
Bayesian AR	Order	4	5	4	3	12	5	5
	RMSE	31793.72	7347.76	13984.98	12918.25	15705.38	20254.35	9021.714
	MAPE	0.119%	0.081%	0.144%	0.129%	0.074%	0.082%	0.142%