Estimating the Number of COVID-19 Cases and Impact of New COVID-19 Variants and Vaccination on the Population in Kerman, Iran: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Table 3

The estimated number of infected, hospitalized, and deaths to assess the impact of new COVID-19 variants and vaccination under different scenarios from February 29, 2020, to August 30, 2021, in Kerman, Iran.

	Calibrated model	Reported data	Scenario D	Scenario E	Scenario F
Infected cases
Total number (95% UI) until 30 August 2021	881,000 (202,000–1,375,000)		957,000 (208,000–1,463,000)	608,000 (122,000–743,000)	1,095,000 (255,000–1,800,000)
Hospitalized cases
Total number (95% UI) until 30 August 2021	39,000 (9,000–67,000)	35,873	46,000 (10,000–70,000)	31,000 (5,000–45,000)	54,000 (13,000–115,000)
Deaths
Total number (95% UI) 30 August 2021	4,300 (1,400–6,500)	4,263	4,500 (1,500–7,000)	2,700 (700–4,000)	5,000 (1,500–7,500)

Uncertainty interval.