Predicting the Number of Reported Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Guiyang, China, Based on Time Series Analysis Techniques

Table 7

Verification of alternative ARIMAX models.

ARIMAX models	Training set			Test set			AIC	Box-Ljung test
	MAPE (%)	RMSE	MAE	MAPE (%)	RMSE	MAE		-squared	value
RH (lag6) + ARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)12	10.220	38.076	28.915	10.343	29.498	25.662	995.280	<0.001	0.983
AAP (lag7) + ARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)12	10.164	37.570	28.511	6.901	20.724	17.306	998.980	0.001	0.973
RH (lag6) + AAP (lag7) + ARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)12	9.837	36.661	27.819	8.202	24.736	20.429	991.790	0.030	0.862