Research Article

The Portfolio Balanced Risk Index Model and Analysis of Examples of Large-Scale Infrastructure Project

Table 3

Main risk factors sequence through the whole life cycle of a major infrastructure project.

Importance sequenceProject risk factorsProbability averageSeverity averageProbability average Severity average

1Incorrect project orientation3.8333.89614.93
4Incorrect market demand forecasting3.9583.64614.43
34Thoughtless about inflation impact3.0833.1959.85
20Incorrect estimation about project investment3.253.22910.49
29Incorrect estimation about return on investment (ROI)3.1673.1259.90
28Thoughtless about financing difficulty3.253.08310.02
9Incorrect estimation about investment return3.4173.511.96
26Thoughtless about financing difficulty3.1673.22910.23
30Government policy changes3.1673.1259.90
7Lack of external experts consultation3.6883.39612.52
31Thoughtless about project impact3.1673.1259.90
21Lack of field investigation and not adjusting measures to local conditions3.253.22910.49
39Insufficient communication between designer and owner3.1673.0219.57
5Lack of innovation and applicability of design plan3.6463.83313.98
37Lack of designers’ full participation3.023.2299.75
32Instability of safety equipment performance3.1663.1249.89
22Financing difficulty or rising costs3.253.22910.49
33Improved environmental protection requirements on construction site3.1643.1239.87
23Materials and equipment supply not on time3.253.22910.49
27Lack of experienced construction personnel3.253.14610.22
16Inability or irresponsibility of contractors3.3333.27110.9
24Inability or irresponsibility of supervisors3.253.22910.49
6Nontimely funding3.1884.08313.02
12Material price increase3.3753.29211.11
3Lack scientific construction process and method3.7713.83314.45
13Legal disputes of related subject3.3743.29111.10
17Worsening social order of project area3.3333.27110.90
8Opposition and obstruction to project construction3.1253.95812.37
2Lack good communication and cooperation among subjects3.9173.7514.69
11Bad weather or major natural disasters2.9583.87511.46
38Trial operation effect can not meet the design requirements3.0833.1259.63
25Instability of equipment performance3.253.22910.49
14Speedy technology and equipment renewal3.3733.29011.09
18Technology and equipment maintenance is not timely3.3333.27110.90
35Rising operating costs3.0833.1889.83
36Sudden events2.9793.2929.81
10Major natural disasters2.9583.91711.59
15Lack of a clear accountability system3.3713.28911.07
19Lack of operation management or experiences3.3333.27110.90