| model | | E1[1] ~ dbin(p[1], Sini) | | logit(p[1]) <- alpha1 * log(Iini) + r[1] | | for(t in 2:T) | | E1[t] ~ dbin(p[t], S[t-1]) | | logit(p[t]) <- alpha1 * log(I[t-1]) + r[t] | | | | for(t in 1:T) | | r[t] <- a + a1*cos(2*3.1416*t/52) + a2*sin(2*3.1416*t/52) | | + a3*cos(4*3.1416*t/52) + a4*sin(4*3.1416*t/52) | | + a5*cos(6*3.1416*t/52) + a6*sin(6*3.1416*t/52) + epsilon[t] | | epsilon[t] ~ dnorm(0, tau.epsilon) | | | | alpha1 ~ dunif(0, 1) | | a ~ dnorm(0, tau.a) | | tau.a <- 1 / pow(sigma.a, 2) | | sigma.a ~ dunif(0, 5) | | a1 ~ dnorm(0, tau.a1) | | tau.a1 <- 1 / pow(sigma.a1, 2) | | sigma.a1 ~ dunif(0, 5) | | a2 ~ dnorm(0, tau.a2) | | tau.a2 <- 1 / pow(sigma.a2, 2) | | sigma.a2 ~ dunif(0, 5) | | a3 ~ dnorm(0, tau.a3) | | tau.a3 <- 1 / pow(sigma.a3, 2) | | sigma.a3 ~ dunif(0, 5) | | a4 ~ dnorm(0, tau.a4) | | tau.a4 <- 1 / pow(sigma.a4, 2) | | sigma.a4 ~ dunif(0, 5) | | a5 ~ dnorm(0, tau.a5) | | tau.a5 <- 1 / pow(sigma.a5, 2) | | sigma.a5 ~ dunif(0, 5) | | a6 ~ dnorm(0, tau.a6) | | tau.a6 <- 1 / pow(sigma.a6, 2) | | sigma.a6 ~ dunif(0, 5) | | tau.epsilon <- 1 / pow(sigma.epsilon, 2) | | sigma.epsilon ~ dunif(0, 5) | | |
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