On the Dynamical Complexity of a Seasonally Forced Discrete SIR Epidemic Model with a Constant Vaccination Strategy

<div>Behavior of the maximal Lyapunov exponent <svg height="12.584pt" id="M310" style="vertical-align:-3.29567pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 24.4821 12.584" width="24.4821pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M529 97L508 118C475 75 449 58 438 58C428 58 421 66 415 104C393 234 374 403 364 496C345 670 307 712 254 712C220 712 174 691 153 669L161 645C176 653 194 658 206 658C237 658 261 640 278 562C287 522 290 483 293 434C223 269 110 105 23 9L32 -12C59 -6 85 0 108 7C152 64 251 252 300 366C307 297 315 221 337 82C346 24 363 -12 393 -12C425 -12 475 13 529 97Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.761,3.132)"><path d="M810 0V30C751 35 744 40 744 106V296C744 396 694 451 614 451C583 451 558 438 537 425C512 409 485 391 454 368C434 420 390 451 342 451C309 451 285 439 260 424C228 405 206 387 185 372V453C141 434 90 421 43 413V386C102 378 105 373 105 309V106C105 41 96 35 29 30V0H243V30C194 35 185 41 185 106V335C216 360 256 389 297 389C357 389 384 348 384 275V106C384 41 374 35 312 30V0H530V30C475 35 465 41 465 104V294C465 313 464 324 463 336C502 367 539 389 576 389C637 389 663 346 663 274V109C663 41 653 35 593 30V0H810Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.323,3.132)"><path d="M442 39L431 68C420 63 406 57 394 57C377 57 359 71 359 118V301C359 353 349 393 314 424C291 443 261 451 230 451C171 438 107 401 79 381C59 366 46 355 46 340C46 316 72 295 91 295C106 295 117 303 122 319C131 350 139 371 152 384C163 397 178 404 197 404C246 404 281 365 281 293V278C260 262 186 232 124 213C69 194 41 161 41 112C41 47 92 -12 163 -12C195 -12 243 25 283 51C288 35 293 22 308 7C319 -4 339 -12 354 -12L442 39ZM281 87C262 68 226 51 199 51C169 51 129 74 129 126C129 162 151 181 190 198C211 208 259 229 281 240V87Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.409,3.132)"><path d="M482 0V30C420 38 407 48 370 103L273 248C308 299 331 332 352 357C387 397 401 404 463 409V439H277V409C318 405 324 400 307 369C290 337 270 307 251 279L194 367C175 396 180 402 220 409V439H18V409C74 401 87 395 117 349L204 213C173 168 147 130 119 95C78 46 67 38 5 30V0H195V30C144 38 143 47 162 79C181 112 202 149 225 181L297 70C314 43 307 35 264 30V0H482Z"></path></g></svg> for different values of the constant vaccination <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.10848pt" id="M311" style="vertical-align:-3.291111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.81737 10.8789 9.10848" width="10.8789pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.811,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg>:</span> (a) <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.6399pt" id="M312" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 58.1891 11.6399" width="58.1891pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.811,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.389,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.652,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.892,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.856,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.096,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.336,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg>;</span> (b) <svg height="11.6399pt" id="M313" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 47.5675 11.6399" width="47.5675pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.811,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.389,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.652,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.892,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.856,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.096,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g></svg> (the<i> threshold </i>value of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.10848pt" id="M314" style="vertical-align:-3.291111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.81737 10.8789 9.10848" width="10.8789pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.811,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg>);</span> and (c) <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.6399pt" id="M315" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 47.5675 11.6399" width="47.5675pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.811,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.389,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.652,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.892,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.856,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.096,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Complexity

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: On the Dynamical Complexity of a Seasonally Forced Discrete SIR Epidemic Model with a Constant Vaccination Strategy 