Bipartisanship Breakdown, Functional Networks, and Forensic Analysis in Spanish 2015 and 2016 National Elections

Figure 11

Summary of MAD goodness of fit to 1BL (a, c) and 2BL (b, d) for 2015 (a, b) and 2016 (c, d), performed individually at each precinct (each precinct shows a precise distribution and an associated MAD, so here we plot the mean standard deviation over all Spanish precincts, excluding Ceuta and Melilla, precincts with a single municipality). In every case, the critical values for rejection at the 95 and 99% confidence level are shown. Interestingly, in the case of 1BL for a large majority, we accept conformance to Benford’s law, whereas, in the case of 2BL for a large majority, the null hypothesis is rejected. All these results are consistent with the hypothesis test based on MAD.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)