Risk Analysis of Emergency Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning

Table 1

Railway project accident risk analysis and evident definition.

General attribute	Basic attribute	Risk consequence	Risk grade	Risk weight	Risk value
Key attribute	Cut slope height	Slide slump, blocks peeling off, roadbed deformation	FG1	0.2	2
	Bank slope height	Embankment settlement, slope collapse	FG3	0.1	9
	Special construction conditions	Casualty, economic loss, postproject risks	FG2	0.2	6
	Special construction technologies	Project failure, economic loss, derivative project failure, postproject risks	FG1	0.2	1
	Deep foundation pit	Structural design failure, settlement deformation, unexpected accidents	FG2	0.2	7
	Existing railway effects	Technological bottleneck, roadbed deterioration, schedule delay	FG4	0.1	16
Secondary attribute	Project schedule	Go over budget, alleviate function, interface project delay	FG4	0.1	15
	Function loss	Below the market demand	FG3	0.05	9
	Project investment	Project abandon, poor quality, social conflicts	FG4	0.1	11
	Environment protect	Destroy environment like cultural relics and natural habitats. Social conflict and welfare	FG1	0.15	1
	Social status along the project	Social conflict, go over budget, schedule delay	FG5	0.05	17
	Locomotive depot configuration	Operational risk, social investigation	FG4	0.05	14
	Vehicle configuration	Operational risk	FG5	0.05	18
	Terminal location	Project abandon, infrastructure settlement	FG3	0.05	14
	Project interface	Project isolation, project failure	FG3	0.2	9
	Infrastructure relocation	Go over budget, schedule delay, group conflict	FG2	0.15	6
	Residual risk	Unexpected loss	FG3	0.05	—
Environmental attribute	Weather condition	Project duration, operational risk	FG3	0.15	9
	Underground water	Settlement, roadbed deformation, water pollution	FG5	0.25	18
	Geological condition	Roadbed risk, social conflict, project abandon, karst water and mud inrush disaster, bombing	FG3	0.25	7
	Stuff quality	Casualty, operational risk, project failure	FG2	0.35	3