Complexity

Review Article

Analysis of the Strategic Emission-Based Energy Policies of Developing and Developed Economies with Twin Prediction Model

Unit root test and ARIMA results for agricultural value addition.


Groups	ADF	Possible forms of ARIMA	Regression coefficients (prob)	R²	AIC	SIC

26 OECD	−5.81 (0.00)	(2, 1, 2)	AR(2) = 0.18 (0.36) MA(2) = −0.99 (0.04)	0.33	51.48	51.62
		(2, 1, 12)	AR(2) = −0.47 (0.00) MA(12) = −0.89(0.02)	0.65	50.81	50.95
		(13, 1, 12)	AR(13) = −0.62(0.00) MA(12) = −0.88 (0.05)	0.70	50.85	51.01

Upper middle income	−4.11(0.00)	(1, 1, 1)	AR(1) = 0.95 (0.02) MA(1) = −0.66 (0.00)	0.33	52.26	52.4
		(1, 1, 3)	AR(1) = 0.47 (0.03) MA(3) = 0.39 (0.01)	0.34	52.25	52.39
		(3, 1, 1)	AR(3) = 0.71 (0.00) MA(1) = 0.31 (0.22)	0.38	52.24	52.38
		(3, 1, 3)	AR(3) = 0.78 (0.32) MA(3) = −0.06 (0.22)	0.34	52.4	52.54
		(4, 1, 1)	AR(4) = 0.67 (0.01) MA(1) = 0.57 (0.00)	0.36	52.24	52.38
		(4, 1, 3)	AR(4) = 0.52 (0.01) MA(3) = 0.33 (0.20)	0.29	52.41	52.56

Middle income	−8.15(0.00)	(1, 1, 1)	AR(1) = 0.98 (0.02) MA(1) = −0.68 (0.00)	0.40	52.96	53.1
		(3, 1, 1)	AR(3) = 0.80 (0.00) MA(1) = 0.37 (0.00)	0.48	52.87	53.01
		(3, 1, 3)	AR(3) = 0.93 (0.04) MA(3) = −0.08 (0.22)	0.45	52.93	53.00

Lower middle income	−8.5(0.00)	(1, 1, 1)	AR(1) = 0.91 (0.02) MA(1) = −0.58 (0.24)	0.35	51.09	51.23
		(3, 1, 1)	AR(3) = 0.82 (0.00) MA(1) = 0.29 (0.38)	0.45	50.96	51.10
		(3, 1, 3)	AR(3) = 0.61 (0.04) MA(3) = 0.46 (0.02)	0.46	50.94	51.08

Low income	−7.37 (0.00)	(1, 1, 1)	AR(1) = 0.95 (0.00) MA(1) = −0.67 (0.01)	0.30	47.3	47.44
		(2, 1, 1)	AR(2) = 0.36 (0.28) MA(1) = 0.4 (0.01)	0.16	47.5	47.64
		(3, 1, 1)	AR(3) = 0.9 (0.38) MA(1) = 0.18 (0.31)	0.16	47.5	47.64
		(4, 1, 1)	AR(4) = 0.35 (0.28) MA(1) = 0.19 (0.21)	0.14	47.57	47.61

Note. Bold marks indicate significant results and the accepted ARIMA structures for which forecasting is made. Source: computed by the authors.