An Advanced Hybrid Forecasting System for Wind Speed Point Forecasting and Interval Forecasting
Table 6
Prediction performance comparison table of the proposed model and combined models using different data pretreatment techniques.
Dataset
Model
One step
Two steps
MAE
MAPE
RMSE
MSE
DC
FICP
FINAW
AWD
MAE
MAPE
RMSE
MSE
DC
FICP
FINAW
AWD
Set 1
EMD-based model
0.2388
5.4728
0.3147
0.0991
80.2048
80.9524
0.1164
0.0538
0.3351
7.6773
0.4486
0.2012
79.7945
69.9659
0.1170
0.1303
CEEMD-based model
0.2396
5.7345
0.3134
0.0982
80.8874
81.6327
0.1120
0.0472
0.4077
9.6214
0.5311
0.2821
75.3425
60.7509
0.1133
0.1796
SSA-based model
0.3933
9.1076
0.5015
0.2515
60.7509
60.5442
0.1331
0.1425
0.3958
9.1705
0.5024
0.2524
60.9589
60.4096
0.1336
0.1449
VMD-based model
0.2379
5.5063
0.3225
0.1040
83.2765
82.6531
0.1217
0.0548
0.5132
12.0669
0.6844
0.4684
68.1507
52.9010
0.1342
0.2736
Proposed model
0.1648
3.8354
0.2284
0.0498
92.0139
93.4028
0.0984
0.0193
0.2435
5.6317
0.3329
0.1109
85.9589
83.2765
0.1284
0.0494
Set 2
EMD-based model
0.3594
10.3580
0.5560
0.3091
76.1092
83.6735
0.1977
0.0486
0.5209
15.2106
0.7310
0.5343
71.5753
69.9659
0.2342
0.0990
CEEMD-based model
0.3295
10.4210
0.4697
0.2206
78.8396
88.0952
0.1810
0.0335
0.5969
18.6063
0.8420
0.7090
68.4932
67.5768
0.1875
0.1524
SSA-based model
0.5030
14.5762
0.7126
0.5078
60.4096
70.4082
0.2208
0.0983
0.5120
14.9608
0.7470
0.5580
71.2329
69.2833
0.2216
0.1105
VMD-based model
0.3715
11.0545
0.5239
0.2745
79.5222
84.0136
0.1806
0.0550
0.7715
23.4133
1.0700
1.1450
62.6712
51.8771
0.2005
0.2378
Proposed model
0.2159
6.94987
0.3065
0.0937
90.2778
94.2177
0.1260
0.0128
0.3974
11.6754
0.5477
0.2999
80.4795
81.5700
0.1987
0.0533
Set 3
EMD-based model
0.4462
12.3784
0.5637
0.3177
76.4505
77.5510
0.2071
0.0427
0.5967
15.9707
0.7418
0.5503
74.3151
68.9420
0.2025
0.0716
CEEMD-based model
0.4004
10.9472
0.5195
0.2699
81.5700
83.3333
0.2014
0.0297
0.6885
18.8034
0.8687
0.7546
76.3699
60.7509
0.2084
0.1217
SSA-based model
1.0028
26.9696
1.2404
1.5387
56.3140
44.2177
0.3372
0.2572
1.0115
26.8555
1.2534
1.5711
56.8493
44.3686
0.3550
0.2524
VMD-based model
0.3265
8.8809
0.4150
0.1722
87.7133
91.1565
0.2108
0.0141
0.9349
25.2413
1.1851
1.4044
65.0685
48.1229
0.2513
0.2248
Proposed model
0.2946
8.2657
0.3794
0.1456
89.9305
94.5578
0.1860
0.0072
0.3655
9.6888
0.4736
0.2243
85.6164
88.7372
0.2349
0.0188
The most notable results are bolded. MAPE is the average of absolute percentage error. MAE is the mean absolute error of forecasting results. RMSE is the square root of the average of the error squares. MSE is mean squared error. DC is directional change. FICP is forecast interval coverage probability. FINAW is forecast interval normalized average width. AWD is accumulated width deviation of testing dataset.
