The Optimized Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Based on Dynamic Background Value and Its Application

Table 2

The predicted values and APEs of the GM (1, N) model, Model 1, and DBGM (1, N) model in Case 1.

Year	Data	GM (1, N)	ARIMA	Model 1	ANN	DBGM (1, N)
		Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
2005	24940.32	24940.32	24919.06	24940.32	31149.99	24940.32
2006	28587.97	24931.51	28617.08	35977.41	31664.68	28547.98
2007	32711.81	34392.70	32264.73	37604.89	32710.67	32714.83
2008	34541.35	36093.31	36388.57	37705.47	34539.62	34848.43
2009	37032.14	37382.43	38218.11	38617.09	37030.69	36456.12
2010	41934.49	41668.96	40708.90	41350.29	39477.81	40315.03
2011	47000.88	46814.53	45611.25	44572.92	41220.20	44824.68
MAPE		4.0662%	2.2833%	10.1342%	7.6900%	1.8476%
2012	49762.64	50647.92	50677.64	46989.86	42196.80	48177.3
2013	54203.41	54266.48	54354.40	49273.87	42672.16	51340.08
2014	56383.69	58269.41	58031.16	51796.65	42887.64	54837.29
2015	58019.97	61264.64	61707.92	53702.03	42982.16	57458.68
2016	61297.09	65341.15	65384.68	56281.35	43023.03	61022.74
2017	64820.97	71566.98	69061.44	60161.17	43040.58	66450.42
MAPE		4.6395%	4.1010%	7.6026%	24.9576%	2.5233%