The Optimized Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Based on Dynamic Background Value and Its Application

Table 4

The predicted values and APEs of the GM (1, N) model, Model 1, and DBGM (1, N) model in Case 2.

Year	Data	GM (1, N)	ARIMA	Model 1	ANN	DBGM (1, N)
		Value	Value	Value	APE	Value
2005	261369.00	261369.00	261128.60	261369.00	276860.63	261369.00
2006	286467.00	252668.07	282314.70	306444.41	294299.11	285217.83
2007	311442.00	338789.79	307412.70	308711.04	311258.56	311142.17
2008	320611.00	337353.50	332387.70	326945.24	323401.10	320592.66
2009	336126.00	339555.68	341556.70	337062.90	330319.83	329890.45
2010	360648.00	360915.57	357071.70	359276.85	333759.28	351505.13
2011	387043.00	387839.38	381593.70	385095.99	335353.26	376658.27
MAPE		4.5170%	1.5034	1.8314%	4.5898%	1.2686%
2012	402138.00	408286.88	407988.70	404479.99	336067.92	395545.34
2013	416913.00	427683.99	428934.30	422803.23	336383.56	413399.32
2014	425806.00	449124.28	449880.00	443035.25	336522.05	433112.87
2015	429905.00	465330.08	470825.70	458348.46	336582.63	448035.34
2016	435819.00	487260.64	491771.30	479052.75	336609.10	468210.02
2017	448529.14	520214.04	512717.00	510087.60	336620.66	498445.42
2018	464000.00	551023.68	530792.00	539078.33	336625.71	526687.47
2019	486000.00	578574.13	548891.00	565001.18	336627.91	551940.77
MAPE		10.4272%	9.2494%	8.5923%	23.0402%	6.7569%