The Optimized Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Based on Dynamic Background Value and Its Application

Table 6

The predicted values and APEs of Model 1, DBGM (1, N) model, and DBGM (1, N) model in Case 3.

Year	Data	GM (1, N)	ARIMA	Model 1	ANN	DBGM (1, N)
		Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
2005	211.00	211.00	210.80	211.00	214.90	211.00
2006	230.00	206.44	224.83	256.41	226.84	229.97
2007	250.00	276.90	243.83	247.59	240.81	250.05
2008	254.00	270.27	263.83	257.71	253.96	255.31
2009	264.00	267.61	267.83	263.51	264.06	261.84
2010	273.00	277.92	277.83	275.74	270.67	277.20
2011	294.00	292.30	286.83	289.90	274.55	295.07
MAPE		5.1927%	2.0483%	2.7487%	2.0576%	0.5455%
2012	313.00	303.56	301.78	300.65	276.69	308.52
2013	335.00	314.35	321.67	310.83	277.82	321.25
2014	346.10	326.28	335.50	322.06	278.41	335.30
2015	365.40	335.39	349.33	330.64	278.72	345.96
2016	393.20	347.65	363.17	342.18	278.87	360.35
2017	415.60	365.78	377.00	359.18	278.95	381.82
MAPE		7.7820%	5.3251%	9.0282%	22.3174%	5.0765%