The Optimized Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Based on Dynamic Background Value and Its Application

Table 8

The predicted values and APEs of GM (1, N) model, Model 1, and DBGM (1, N) model in case 4.

Year	Data	GM (1, N)	ARIMA	Model 1	ANN	DBGM (1, N)
		Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
2005	221.30	221.30	221.11	221.30	227.42	221.30
2006	255.60	240.94	254.10	327.40	257.01	254.83
2007	308.30	373.94	288.40	327.10	293.95	308.64
2008	331.90	395.49	341.10	346.53	332.40	326.09
2009	366.00	392.20	364.70	361.35	365.54	340.84
2010	383.10	409.90	398.80	396.04	389.77	379.82
2011	418.10	438.25	415.90	436.52	405.44	425.65
MAPE		10.8605%	2.1255%	7.9417%	1.8593%	1.9500%
2012	460.40	461.18	450.90	466.67	414.78	459.69
2013	515.00	484.34	483.70	495.11	420.08	491.80
2014	526.00	510.89	516.50	526.56	423.00	527.31
2015	551.70	531.08	549.30	550.18	424.59	553.90
2016	610.80	558.72	582.10	582.25	425.44	590.06
2017	654.30	600.59	614.90	630.96	425.90	645.26
MAPE		4.9114%	3.5171%	2.3079%	22.7027%	1.6802%