A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China

<div>The simulation results of the age-dependent branching process with immigration. The red and black curves are for the imported and local cases, respectively. The red curves in all the subfigures are simulated with the same rate <svg height="11.5564pt" id="M96" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 19.0855 11.5564" width="19.0855pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,5.488,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.986,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.419,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg>, as shown in Figure <a href="../fig5/">5</a>. 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(a) α = 0.1 and λ = 0.4. (b) α = 0.1 and λ = 1.4. (c) α = 0.1 and λ = 4.8. (d) α = 0.4 and λ = 0.4. (e) α = 0.4 and λ = 1.4. (f) α = 0.4 and λ = 4.8. (g) α = 0.7 and λ = 0.4. (h) α = 0.7 and λ = 1.4. (i) α = 0.7 and λ = 4.8.</div>

Complexity

fig6

Figure 6

Figure 6: A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China 