Time-Varying Spatial Memory Model and Its Impact on Virus Spreading

Figure 10

The simulated result of the time-varying interregional epidemic model and the real number of confirmed cases in Shanghai in February, 2020. The red curve indicates the actual number of COVID-19 patients per day. The black curve is simulated by the interregional model. In February, our simulation results fit well with the real results, and we also made predictions about the epidemic situation after February.