Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

Figure 3

(I) Effect of heterogeneous susceptibility on the final size. Infectiousness is kept constant, while the susceptibility is sampled from gamma distributions with differing variances but with identical means (corresponding to identical values of ). (II) Effect of heterogeneous susceptibility and infectiousness on the final size, when infectiousness is proportional to susceptibility. The contact parameter to which they are both proportional is sampled from gamma distributions with differing variances but with the same second moment (so as to keep constant). In both cases, , the population consists of 500 equally sized groups, and equation (17) was used to calculate the final epidemic size .