Modeling Complex Systems: A Case Study of Compartmental Models in Epidemiology

Figure 6

Time series of daily new COVID-19 infections from the state of Chhattisgarh in India shows an epidemic plateau between 2021-04-16 and 2021-05-06. Three districts of the state (out of 27)—Durg, Raipur, and Rajnandgaon—peaked around 2021-04-16, while the rest of the districts in the state peaked around 2021-05-06. This disparity in the trajectories is a result of the heterogeneity in the social contact structures, as well as in the timing and strength of policy and behavioral changes. Epidemic data were obtained from ref. [63].