Assessing the Probability of Drought Severity in a Homogeneous Region

Table 5

Probability of extreme, severe, median, and normal drought events along the rainy season of 2017 (January to June) at scale 6 according to the RSACDPMS framework for the Northern area.

		January	February	March	April	May	June
Mean monthly precipitation (mm)	Monthly	22.78	29.35	22.41	27.55	20.28	12.05
	Accumulated	22.78	52.13	74.54	102.09	122.37	134.42
Observed precipitation (mm)	Monthly	16	18.2	26.7	15.2	16.1	10.6
	Accumulated	16	34.2	60.9	76.1	92.2	102.8
Drought category (threshold)		Drought risk
Extremely dry (55.29)		0.09	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	No drought
Severely dry (66.04)		0.34	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	No drought
Median dry (70.05)		0.39	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.00	No drought
Normal dry (120.90)		0.72	0.59	0.78	0.94	0.96	Drought