Booms and Busts in Chinese Agricultural Markets: An Agent-Based Model

Figure 2

Bifurcation diagrams of the parameter w, with all other parameters fixed at a = 8, b = 0.44, c = 2, d = 9.6, e = 1.5, γ = 0.089, ε = 0, and R = 1.0186. The figures show the existence of single or multiple stable steady states or even chaotic price dynamics under different w-values. The w appears in (1) and (15), denoting the weight of the latest market price in producers' price expectation formation. (a) In the original ABM with speculators, nonlinear price dynamics show various phenomena, such as pitch-fork bifurcation (w = 0.7703), period-doubling bifurcation (0.109 < w < 0.3812), and chaos (w < 0.1098). (b) In the degenerate case without speculators, one single stable steady state of the market price exists under different values of w.

(a)

(b)