The Credit Risk Contagion Mechanism of Financial Guarantee Network: An Application of the SEIR-Epidemic Model

<div>Simulation results of conversion rate of exposed enterprises on credit risk contagion. (a) <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M92" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.21949 9.49473" width="6.21949pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M452 333C452 398 425 448 375 448C329 448 235 404 140 292H138L229 683C233 701 234 712 225 712C208 712 149 686 66 677L64 652H97C135 652 140 651 129 598L38 167C23 96 29 57 44 33C60 7 98 -12 132 -12C169 -12 232 3 290 41C383 102 452 223 452 333ZM365 316C365 199 308 87 239 49C221 39 200 35 183 35C137 35 99 70 112 163C116 191 123 215 129 233C190 316 290 392 330 392C348 392 365 372 365 316Z"></path></g></svg> = 0.2. (b) <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M93" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.21949 9.49473" width="6.21949pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M452 333C452 398 425 448 375 448C329 448 235 404 140 292H138L229 683C233 701 234 712 225 712C208 712 149 686 66 677L64 652H97C135 652 140 651 129 598L38 167C23 96 29 57 44 33C60 7 98 -12 132 -12C169 -12 232 3 290 41C383 102 452 223 452 333ZM365 316C365 199 308 87 239 49C221 39 200 35 183 35C137 35 99 70 112 163C116 191 123 215 129 233C190 316 290 392 330 392C348 392 365 372 365 316Z"></path></g></svg> = 0.8.</div>

Complexity

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Figure 4

Figure 4: The Credit Risk Contagion Mechanism of Financial Guarantee Network: An Application of the SEIR-Epidemic Model 