Canadian Respiratory Journal

Research Article

The Efficacy and Cost-Effectiveness of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol versus Tiotropium in Symptomatic Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Table 2

Model parameters.


Input parameter	Value	Distribution	Distribution parameter
Input parameter	Value	Distribution	α	β

Outcome probabilities
P (A ⟶ A)-UMEC/VI	0.952	Dirichlet	1234	62
P (A ⟶ B)-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296 [15]
P (A ⟶ C)-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (A ⟶ death)-UMEC/VI	0.048	Dirichlet	62	1234
P (B ⟶ A)-UMEC/VI	0.030	Dirichlet	39	1257
P (B ⟶ B)-UMEC/VI	0.922	Dirichlet	1195	101
P (B ⟶ C)-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (B ⟶ death)-UMEC/VI	0.048	Dirichlet	62	1234
P (C ⟶ A)-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (C ⟶ B)-UMEC/VI	0.030	Dirichlet	39	1257
P (C ⟶ C)-UMEC/VI	0.944	Dirichlet	1223	73
P (C ⟶ death)-UMEC/VI	0.026	Dirichlet	34	1262
P (A ⟶ A)-new-UMEC/VI	0.952	Dirichlet	1234	62
P (A ⟶ B)-new-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (A ⟶ C)-new-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (A ⟶ death)-new-UMEC/VI	0.048	Dirichlet	62	1234
P (B ⟶ A)-new-UMEC/VI	0.043	Dirichlet	56	1240
P (B ⟶ B)-new-UMEC/VI	0.909	Dirichlet	1178	118
P (B ⟶ C)-new-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (B ⟶ death)-new-UMEC/VI	0.048	Dirichlet	62	1234
P (C ⟶ A)-new-UMEC/VI	0.000	Dirichlet	0	1296
P (C ⟶ B)-new-UMEC/VI	0.026	Dirichlet	34	1262
P (C ⟶ C)-new-UMEC/VI	0.948	Dirichlet	1228	68
P (C ⟶ death)-new-UMEC/VI	0.026	Dirichlet	34	1262
P (A ⟶ A)-TIO	0.952	Dirichlet	832	42
P (A ⟶ B)-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874 [15]
P (A ⟶ C)-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (A ⟶ death)-TIO	0.048	Dirichlet	42	832
P (B ⟶ A)-TIO	0.041	Dirichlet	36	838
P (B ⟶ B)-TIO	0.911	Dirichlet	796	78
P (B ⟶ C)-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (B ⟶ death)-TIO	0.048	Dirichlet	42	832
P (C ⟶ A)-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (C ⟶ B)-TIO	0.038	Dirichlet	33	841
P (C ⟶ C)-TIO	0.936	Dirichlet	818	56
P (C ⟶ death)-TIO	0.026	Dirichlet	23	851
P (A ⟶ A)-new-TIO	0.952	Dirichlet	832	42
P (A ⟶ B)-new-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (A ⟶ C)-new-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (A ⟶ death)-new-TIO	0.048	Dirichlet	42	832
P (B ⟶ A)-new-TIO	0.043	Dirichlet	38	836
P (B ⟶ B)-new-TIO	0.909	Dirichlet	794	80
P (B ⟶ C)-new-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (B ⟶ death)-new-TIO	0.048	Dirichlet	42	832
P (C ⟶ A)-new-TIO	0.000	Dirichlet	0	874
P (C ⟶ B)-new-TIO	0.026	Dirichlet	23	851
P (C ⟶ C)-new-TIO	0.948	Dirichlet	829	45
P (C ⟶ death)-new-TIO	0.026	Dirichlet	23	851

ADR
P back pain-UMEC/VI	1.54%	γ	21.6629	0.0007
P cough-UMEC/VI	1.43%	γ	142.2286	0.0001
P headache-UMEC/VI	4.70%	γ	1803.471	0.0000
P nasopharyngitis-UMEC/VI	3.63%	γ	50.4199	0.0007
P upper respiratory tract infection-UMEC/VI	1.65%	γ	123.5419	0.0001
P back pain-TIO	1.61%	γ	16.8545	0.0010
P cough-TIO	1.50%	γ	183.1319	0.0001
P headache-TIO	3.20%	γ	77.0869	0.0004
P nasopharyngitis-TIO	3.67%	γ	499.4234	0.0001
P upper respiratory tract infection-TIO	2.64%	γ	44.4837	0.0006

Cost
Drug cost
C UMEC/VI	$95.223	Uniform	76.1783	114.2675
C TIO	$180.528	Uniform	144.4223	216.6334

Other medical costs
C predicted FEV₁ (50%–80%)	$143.370	Uniform	114.6958	172.0437
C predicted FEV₁ (30%–50%)	$204.289	Uniform	163.4312	245.1468
C predicted FEV₁ (<30%)	$319.454	Uniform	255.5629	383.3443

Adverse event cost
C back pain	$3.189	Uniform	2.5509	3.8263
C cough	$32.196	Uniform	25.7569	38.6353
C headache	$3.189	Uniform	2.5509	3.8263
C nasopharyngitis	$3.189	Uniform	2.5509	3.8263
C oropharyngeal pain	$15.972	Uniform	12.7776	19.1663
C upper respiratory tract infection	$39.214	Uniform	31.3711	47.0566

Exacerbation cost
C severe exacerbation	$2,129.690	Uniform	1703.7522	2555.6283
C nonsevere exacerbation	$44.824	Uniform	35.8594	53.7891

Utility
U predicted FEV1 (<30%)	0.670	β	58.5848	28.8552
U predicted FEV₁ (30%–50%)	0.720	β	160.5600	62.4400
U predicted FEV₁ (50%–80%)	0.810	β	310.8375	72.9125
Discount (quarterly)	0.01

Exacerbations
Number of severe exacerbations with predicted FEV₁ (50%–80%)	0.028 (13)	Uniform	0.0220	0.0330
Number of severe exacerbations with predicted FEV₁ (30%–50%)	0.063	Uniform	0.0500	0.0750
Number of severe exacerbations with predicted FEV₁ (<30%)	0.135	Uniform	0.1080	0.1620
Number of nonsevere exacerbations with predicted FEV₁ (50%–80%)	0.185	Uniform	0.1480	0.2220
Number of nonsevere exacerbations with predicted FEV₁ (30%–50%)	0.273	Uniform	0.2180	0.3270
Number of nonsevere exacerbations with predicted FEV₁ (<30%)	0.365	Uniform	0.2920	0.4380

In the calculation, the quarterly discount was 1%. The number of different severe exacerbations (13) was the average number of seizures in a patient over a three-month period. P: probability, C: cost, U: utility. Different status: predicted FEV1 (<30%): A, predicted FEV1 (30%–50%): B, predicted FEV1 (50%–80%): C.