Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle
Table 2
The correlation coefficients (C.C.) and root mean square errors (RMSE) between forecast value and real value of different events of WPSH abnormal years.
Forecast events
Statistical tests
Short term (1~15 days)
Medium term (16~25 days)
Long term (26~35 days)
C.C.
RMSE
C.C.
RMSE
C.C.
RMSE
SI bigger event 1 (1998.06.21 as initial values to forecast)
0.957
2.92%
0.812
4.51%
0.723
11.91%
SI bigger event 2 (2006.07.18 as initial values to forecast)
0.936
2.88%
0.877
4.72%
0.776
10.98%
SI bigger event 3 (1987.07.08 as initial values to forecast)
0.942
3.16%
0.881
3.97%
0.718
11.48%
SI bigger event 4 (1983.08.05 as initial values to forecast)
0.958
3.40%
0.820
4.06%
0.729
10.90%
SI smaller event 1 (1984.07.28 as initial values to forecast)
0.951
3.12%
0.815
3.43%
0.789
11.21%
SI smaller event 2 (2000.06.29 as initial values to forecast)
0.892
3.47%
0.825
4.97%
0.708
10.76%
SI smaller event 3 (1994.08.17 as initial values to forecast)
0.914
4.52%
0.755
3.83%
0.698
11.87%
SI smaller event 4 (1999.06.12 as initial values to forecast)
0.809
3.97%
0.873
3.89%
0.777
11.70%
SI smaller event 5 (1985.07.11 as initial values to forecast)
