Forecasting Oil Price by Hierarchical Shrinkage in Dynamic Parameter Models

Table 4

Posterior means and standard deviation of and for lags.

Lags	h = 1		h = 12
	1	4.292 E − 03	2.350E − 02	4.613E − 04	5.335E − 03
8.873E − 03		4.947E − 02	1.124E − 03	7.308E − 03
2	1.407E − 03	1.517E − 02	7.182E − 04	4.762E − 03
	4.063E − 03	2.832E − 02	9.439E − 04	6.510E − 03
3	1.484E − 03	1.716E − 02	6.976E − 04	8.312E − 03
	3.116E − 03	3.761E − 02	1.287E − 03	1.249E − 02
4	1.040E − 03	1.587E − 02	4.530E − 04	4.833E − 03
	2.353E − 03	3.271E − 02	9.666E − 04	7.340E − 03
5	1.268E − 03	1.499E − 02	9.913E − 04	4.767E − 03
	3.672E − 03	3.030E − 02	1.152E − 03	7.669E − 03
6	9.445E − 04	1.849E − 02	7.573E − 04	4.690E − 03
	1.875E − 03	3.977E − 02	1.374E − 03	7.282E − 03
7	1.563E − 03	2.183 E − 02	3.827E − 04	4.349E − 03
	3.164E − 03	4.417E − 02	6.040E − 04	6.625E − 03
8	1.746E − 03	2.010E − 02	6.014E − 04	5.303E − 03
	3.673E − 03	3.964E − 02	1.525E − 03	8.904E − 03
9	1.387E − 03	1.336E − 02	3.603E − 04	4.652E − 03
	2.672E − 03	2.807E − 02	6.767E − 04	6.961E − 03
10	1.591E − 03	1.191E − 02	8.393E − 04	5.798E − 03
	2.848E − 03	2.392E − 02	1.430E − 03	1.116E − 02
11	4.017E − 03	1.635E − 02	5.315E − 04	5.441E − 03
	7.294E − 03	3.271E − 02	1.024E − 03	7.460E − 03
12	1.307E − 03	1.288E − 02	1.031 E − 03	5.542E − 03
	2.731E − 03	2.699E − 02	1.667E − 03	7.646E − 03

Note. The bold text noted indicates relatively larger value among all and , while the underlined text represents values relatively smaller ones.