Forecasting Oil Price by Hierarchical Shrinkage in Dynamic Parameter Models

Table 5

Posterior means and standard deviation of and for monthly dummies.

Dummies	h = 1		h = 12
	1	1.137 E − 02	3.553 E − 02	1.498E − 03	5.688E − 03
2.505E − 02		7.022E − 02	2.571E − 03	1.037E − 02
2	1.972E − 03	1.617E − 02	1.490E − 03	6.749E − 03
	6.910E − 03	3.400E − 02	3.898E − 03	1.077E − 02
3	1.996E − 03	1.851E − 02	6.993E − 04	5.422E − 03
	5.533E − 03	4.477E − 02	1.383E − 03	8.975E − 03
4	1.788E − 03	1.732E − 02	8.008E − 04	5.116E − 03
	5.006E − 03	3.710E − 02	1.551E − 03	7.011E − 03
5	1.322E − 03	1.895E − 02	1.404E − 03	5.145E − 03
	3.293E-03	4.164E − 02	2.564E − 03	7.389E − 03
6	7.115E − 03	1.769E − 02	1.425E − 03	6.803E − 03
	1.534E − 02	3.484E − 02	2.453E − 03	9.165E − 03
7	2.157E − 03	1.658E − 02	7.892E − 04	5.889E − 03
	5.331E − 03	3.614E − 02	1.423E − 03	9.500E − 03
8	1.415E − 03	1.627E − 02	3.182E − 03	5.242E − 03
	3.236E − 03	3.636E − 02	7.964E − 03	8.526E − 03
9	3.228E − 03	1.909E − 02	1.314E − 03	6.328E − 03
	8.431E − 03	3.732E − 02	3.359E − 03	9.615E − 03
10	2.274E − 03	1.932E − 02	6.981E − 04	5.538E − 03
	5.342E − 03	4.034E − 02	1.450E − 03	8.144E − 03
11	4.155E − 03	1.898E − 02	1.020E − 03	5.402E − 03
	9.748E − 03	5.034E − 02	1.884E − 03	7.023E − 03

Note. The bold text noted indicates relatively larger value among all and , while the underlined text represents values relatively smaller ones.