The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 10

The deviation between the actual and forecasted values of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in East Africa for the period between 17/9/2020–16/10/2020.

Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap	Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap
17/9/20	1286	1408	122	2/10/2020	1454	1582	128
18/9/20	1476	1327	−149	3/10/2020	1438	1604	166
19/9/20	1166	1663	497	4/10/2020	1408	1786	378
20/9/20	1323	1526	203	5/10/2020	1442	970	−472
21/9/20	1443	1585	142	6/10/2020	1474	1076	−398
22/9/20	1359	1640	281	7/10/2020	1454	1614	160
23/9/20	1267	1351	84	8/10/2020	1447	1926	479
24/9/20	1383	1210	−173	9/10/2020	1479	1630	151
25/9/20	1440	1178	−262	10/10/2020	1492	1811	319
26/9/20	1351	1325	−26	11/10/2020	1477	1615	138
27/9/20	1337	1355	18	12/10/2020	1485	1208	−277
28/9/20	1427	1444	17	13/10/2020	1509	1258	−251
29/9/20	1434	1487	53	14/10/2020	1513	1906	393
30/9/20	1373	1320	−53	15/10/2020	1506	1646	140
01/10/20	1396	1357	−39	16/10/2020	1519	1456	−63

Source: own Computation, 2021.