The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 11

The deviation between the actual and forecasted values of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in West Africa for the period between 17/9/2020–16/10/2020.

Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap	Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap
17/9/20	589	428	−161	2/10/2020	644	525	−119
18/9/20	643	649	6	3/10/2020	607	520	−87
19/9/20	619	601	−18	4/10/2020	632	288	−344
20/9/20	566	495	−71	5/10/2020	677	329	−348
21/9/20	584	423	−161	6/10/2020	667	378	−289
22/9/20	644	407	−237	7/10/2020	626	453	−173
23/9/20	643	555	−88	8/10/2020	632	484	−148
24/9/20	590	412	−178	9/10/2020	678	473	−205
25/9/20	585	573	−12	10/10/2020	686	468	−218
26/9/20	640	372	−268	11/10/2020	649	429	−220
27/9/20	661	586	−75	12/10/2020	638	399	−239
28/9/20	617	320	−297	13/10/2020	677	585	−92
29/9/20	593	454	−139	14/10/2020	700	564	−136
30/9/20	635	686	51	15/10/2020	672	494	−178
1/10/2020	672	442	−230	16/10/2020	649	515	−134

Source: own computation, 2021.