The Validity of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa

Table 12

The deviation between the actual and forecasted values of the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Central Africa for the period between 17/9/2020–16/10/2020.

Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap	Date	Expected cases	Actual cases	Gap
17/9/20	184	169	−15	2/10/2020	220	266	46
18/9/20	206	242	36	3/10/2020	214	203	−11
19/9/20	209	153	−56	4/10/2020	207	43	−164
20/9/20	189	119	−70	5/10/2020	218	163	−55
21/9/20	199	323	124	6/10/2020	221	236	15
22/9/20	2145	157	−1988	7/10/2020	212	35	−177
23/9/20	200	257	57	8/10/2020	216	559	343
24/9/20	195	163	−32	9/10/2020	225	149	−76
25/9/20	214	157	−57	10/10/2020	218	239	21
26/9/20	211	132	−79	11/10/2020	216	150	−66
27/9/20	198	69	−129	12/10/2020	225	171	−54
28/9/20	210	201	−9	13/10/2020	225	209	−16
29/9/20	218	149	−69	14/10/2020	219	525	306
30/9/20	205	220	15	15/10/2020	225	271	46
1/10/2020	206	186	−20	16/10/2020	230	216	−14

Source: own computation, 2021.